Last updated November 5, 2026
What the data show
Enrollment is steady
| What the numbers say | Source |
|---|---|
| Cottage Lake has 309 resident students, in a building designed for 473. | District presentation, Oct 26 ↗ |
| Resident students were 307, 302, 310 and 309 from 2023 to 2026. | District “What If Nothing Changes” page ↗ |
| If nothing changes, the District projects 301, 306, 313 and 323 for 2027 to 2030. | District “What If Nothing Changes” page ↗ |
| The capital plan forecast 9,607 elementary students for fall 2026. The presentation reports 9,208, which is 4.2% lower. | Capital plan, Table 2.1; District presentation, Oct 26 ↗ |
| The District’s own boundary-only option, which closes no schools, puts Cottage Lake at about 405 students. | District Data page ↗ |
Scenario 1 splits our school three ways
| What the numbers say | Source |
|---|---|
| Scenario 1 closes Moorlands, Sunrise and Cottage Lake. Cottage Lake students would go to Wellington (187), East Ridge (90) and Hollywood Hill (28). | District Scenario 1 page ↗; District presentation, Oct 26 ↗ |
| East Ridge would hold 478 to 488 students in a building designed for 495, about 117% to 120% of its 408 permanent instructional seats. (Our calculation.) | Capital plan, Table 4.2; District presentation, Oct 26 ↗ |
| Cottage Lake has 367 permanent instructional seats and no portables. | Capital plan, Table 4.2 |
| The District has 1,825 more elementary seats than students in 2025-26, and a 570-seat surplus in 2035 even under high growth. | Capital plan, Tables 5.3 and 5.4 |
| King County does not permit new school sites outside the Urban Growth Area, so a closed school would be hard to bring back. | 2026 Capital Facilities Plan ↗ |
Getting to school
| What the numbers say | Source |
|---|---|
| East Ridge starts at 9:05, Wellington at 9:10 and Cottage Lake at 9:30, so pickup would be 20 to 25 minutes earlier. | District start and dismissal times ↗ |
| About 1,600 homes in Cottage Lake’s attendance area are within a mile of the school. Only about 24 of those homes are within a mile of East Ridge, and none are within a mile of Wellington or Hollywood Hill. (Our analysis.) | County parcel records and OpenStreetMap routing |
| The receiving schools are about 3 to 3.5 miles away: roughly 65 to 75 minutes on foot, or 20 to 25 minutes by bike at an adult’s pace. (Our analysis.) | OpenStreetMap routing |
| 52 Cottage Lake students walk to school today. | District Transportation Summary Reports ↗ |
| The District has posted bus ride times by neighborhood pocket. It has not posted the cost of the added routes. | District Transportation Summary Reports ↗ |
The District has invested here
| What the numbers say | Source |
|---|---|
| A new inclusive playground opened in February 2026, paid for by the 2022 bond. | District Connections, Mar 24, 2026 ↗ |
| Energy work in summer 2023: roofing and mechanical, plus fiber optic and security camera upgrades. | District 2022 bond progress report ↗ |
| HVAC replacement is funded by the 2026 bond. | District 2026 bond page ↗ |
What the District has said
| What the District says | Source |
|---|---|
| The District posted its first net savings estimate on Nov 2. It leaves out one-time closure costs, added transportation and the cost of maintaining a closed building. | District net savings data, Nov 2 ↗ |
| The District says it has no plans to sell any school building. | District enrollment FAQ ↗ |
| Northshore has no swing site. Shelton View’s students will be relocated for two years starting fall 2028. | District enrollment FAQ ↗ |
| If a school closes, students in regional programs, including FSA, “may transition to receiving services at their neighborhood school or potentially at another school offering regional special education services.” The District gives no plan, staffing or timeline. | District enrollment FAQ ↗ |
The District’s own documents
The District posted new data, including a building condition assessment, in early November. Read them yourself:
- Elementary Closure Net Savings Data ↗
- Facility Condition Assessment ↗
- Transportation Summary Reports ↗
- Resident Enrollment Projections, by school ↗
- Resident Enrollment Projections, by grade and school ↗
- Demographer’s Report ↗
- The District’s Data page ↗
What is still missing
- One-time closure and transition costs, and multi-year net savings that include them.
- The cost of the added bus routes.
- How many staff positions would be eliminated, and how many reassigned.
- The costs at the receiving schools.
- A building-by-building accessibility and FSA plan.
- The plan for each closed building.